Austin’s “Stable” Housing Market? Please.

Everyone keeps saying the Austin housing market has “stabilized.” Really? Let’s look at what’s actually happening, not what the spreadsheets pretend is happening.

On paper, Austin’s single-family home values only dropped about 10% from the pandemic peak, $639K in Dec 2022 down to $570K by late 2024. Supposedly not a big deal. But the short-term charts tell a much uglier story: down nearly 25% from $704K. That’s not “correction.” That’s a full-on faceplant.

And here’s the punchline, those numbers are still too generous.

Why? Because the builders are cooking the optics with “marketing expenses.” Sounds harmless, right? Except what they’re really doing is disguising price cuts as advertising. They’re buying down rates to 5.25–5.5% when the market’s over 7%, and instead of admitting they just knocked tens of thousands off the price to move inventory, they record it as a marketing cost. Corporate accounting magic. Poof, market looks healthy again.

It’s a shell game. The buyers think they’re winning. The builders think they’re outsmarting the data. Meanwhile, the resale market is a ghost town and the true value is quietly sinking like a rock.

Let’s be real: if you factor in those “invisible” incentives, about 3% on average, you’re looking at another $17K off that $570K average. Meaning? The real floor isn’t $570K. It’s closer to $553K. Which would make this the lowest point in the entire correction cycle.

So when someone tells you the market’s “bottomed,” ask: bottomed based on what? The MLS fantasy numbers? The builder’s accounting department? Or the actual prices people are paying once you strip out the smoke and mirrors?

The truth is, this “recovery” is being propped up by financial engineering, not affordability. Builders are playing a survival game, burning through cash just to keep the illusion of stability alive. They’re buying time, not buyers.

Eventually, that game ends. And when it does, the data will finally catch up to the reality: Austin hasn’t stabilized. It’s still falling, just slower, and behind the curtain.

Want to know whats hiding? Let’s talk.