The Housing Market’s Dirty Little Secrets: What No One’s Telling You About Buying Right Now
Alright, let’s cut through the noise. This housing market is a walking contradiction, like a weatherman who predicts sun, but you still end up soaked. If you’re buying this spring and want the unfiltered truth, this is for you. No fluff, just the reality of what’s happening.
Inventory: Up, Prices… Not So Much
We’ve got a 59% increase in inventory compared to last year, sounds great, right? Except sellers still think it’s 2022, and instead of pricing their homes realistically, they list high, watch it sit, and then knock off a grand or two like they’re doing us all a favor. When that doesn’t work? They just pull it off the market and wait. Builders? Instead of lowering prices, they’re slapping on more FHA incentives and “free” upgrades like bad infomercials.
Bottom line? More homes are hitting the market, but fewer are actually selling. Yes, you can get a deal, but don’t expect a 2008-style fire sale. Sellers are stubborn, and buyers still don’t have the upper hand just yet.
The Builder Inventory Debate: Too Much or Not Enough?
One side screams “housing shortage,” while the other claims builders are drowning in unsold homes. Reality? Somewhere in between. There’s plenty of new construction, especially in the Sunbelt states, but builders aren’t in a rush to flood the market and lower their prices. Instead, they pace themselves, keeping supply controlled so they can keep charging premium prices. Mid-tier and luxury builders? Pressing pause on new developments. High-production builders? Cranking out homes with less quality than ever, compensating with “incentives” that don’t really save you money long-term.
Who’s Buying Right Now?
Two groups: those under $350K chasing builder incentives and FHA-backed loans (proceed with caution, because in 3-5 years, they might be underwater) and the over $750K crowd, who have cash and options. The middle? Stuck. Homeowners with low interest rates aren’t moving up because it just doesn’t make sense financially.
Interest Rates: The Real Villain or Just a Scapegoat?
Buyers aren’t even mad about rates anymore, it’s the prices. Sure, rates might dip to the high 5s by 2026, but no one really knows. The real problem? Home prices haven’t corrected enough to make a meaningful difference. Until they do, demand will stay soft.
Consumer Confidence & Debt: A Brewing Storm
Household debt just hit $18.4 trillion. Credit card debt is at $1.2 trillion. Auto loan delinquencies are up 15% from last year. Oh, and FHA loan delinquencies are climbing, shocking, given that those are the loans builders are pushing hardest right now. It doesn’t take a genius to see where this is headed.
Mortgage Applications: A Grim Reality Check
Mortgage applications saw a slight bump, but mostly from people trying to refinance out of those “temporary” 2-1 buydowns builders sold them on. Bad news? 22% of refinance applications are getting rejected. Expect rejection rates to climb even higher in 2025 as consumer debt worsens.
So… Should You Buy?
If you can afford a house comfortably, plan to stay long-term, and aren’t stretching your budget to the breaking point, yes. Buy the house. Prices may drop slightly, rates might shift, but trying to time the market perfectly is like betting on a roulette wheel. Real estate has always moved in cycles, and this one is no different.
But if you’re looking for a quick flip or chasing builder incentives like they’re actually free money, think twice. Keep your debt-to-income ratio low. Buy below your lender-approved max. Consider ALL costs, taxes, insurance, maintenance. In Houston especially, those numbers add up fast.
The real winners in this market? They’re not chasing the builder’s “best deal.” They’re making smart, calculated moves. And that’s exactly what we help our clients do at The Valhalla Ventures. We don’t sell pipe dreams, we build real, profitable strategies that work in any market. Ready to do this right? Let’s talk.