I read an article this morning claiming we’re about to see a housing crash “worse than 2008,” with home prices supposedly dropping 50%.

Look… I get it. Dramatic headlines get clicks. But I disagree, and here’s why.
First, 2008 was a different animal. That crash wasn’t caused by “prices being too high.” It was caused by garbage loans, subprime resets, Wall Street lighting the fuse, and the entire mortgage system collapsing under its own stupidity. Today’s market doesn’t have millions of people sitting on exploding adjustable-rate mortgages. Most folks are locked into low fixed rates and have no incentive to dump their house.
Second, people act like the whole country is one market. It’s not.
Some places are overheated, sure. Those might correct. But a blanket “50% crash across the U.S.” ignores the reality: parts of the country still have housing shortages and strong demand. It won’t all fall the same way.
Third, the article pushes the idea that home prices have to fall until they match what the median household earns. That’s cute, but that’s not how real estate works. Income is one factor. Supply, demand, inventory levels, migration patterns, interest rates, construction costs… it’s a whole ecosystem. You can’t boil that down to, “Well, the math says prices should be X, so they’ll magically drop 50% to get there.”
Also, and this is the big one, the only way you get a 50% price collapse is if people are forced to sell in massive waves. But most owners are sitting on low payments they can actually afford. Investors can rent their properties. And if prices soften, they don’t panic-sell; they hold. The article tries to claim investors will just abandon homes like a junk car on the side of the road. That’s just not how capital works.
Now, will some markets correct? Absolutely. Some already are.
Will some people who overpaid in 2021–2022 feel it? Yes.
Will the entire country drop 50% and make 2008 look like a warm-up round? Not a chance.
A moderate correction makes sense. A doomsday crash doesn’t. And every time analysts start yelling “2008 all over again,” I can’t help but think they’re trying to will it into existence because fear sells better than facts.
Anyway, I read it… and I disagree.