Texas CRE refuses to die, sorry if that ruins your recession fantasy.

Commercial real estate in Texas continues to hold strong, even with some nationwide market jitters. DFW, Houston, and Austin are still top destinations for capital, population, and corporate relocations. Industrial and multifamily remain the most stable performers, with low vacancy rates and steady rent growth. Meanwhile, office space is going through a transformation, especially in Houston, where some high-profile downtown towers are being acquired at discounts and repositioned for different uses.

The statewide CRE market is seeing a shift, less froth, more fundamentals. Cap rates are finally adjusting to reflect risk, and long-term investors are beginning to re-enter after months on the sidelines. Lending is still tight, but private credit is filling gaps where traditional banks have backed off. With inflation cooling and rates potentially stabilizing soon, financing windows could reopen for those prepared.

What this means for smart investors: There’s opportunity in value-add and transitional assets. Submarkets with strong job growth and infrastructure investment, think DFW logistics corridors, Houston’s suburban infill zones, and workforce housing pockets around San Antonio and Austin, are where the next upside lies. If you’re holding cash, it’s time to start underwriting again. If you’re holding assets, now’s the moment to optimize operations and be ready to refinance or exit as capital loosens up.

CRE isn’t dead in Texas. It’s just returning to the hands of those who know how to operate.

Let me know if you want insight on which deals are worth your time, and which ones will waste it.