These things I hear about the market…

These things I hear about the market…

“Multifamily is on sale.”

“Distress is everywhere.”

“Once-in-a-generation buying opportunity.”

And look, part of that is true.

There is real stress. A ton of CRE debt is rolling. Multifamily maturities stack up in 2026. Extend-and-pretend is about out of tricks.

Now the other side of the argument (the value):

Even with distress, most deals still don’t work.

Run today’s math. SOFR around 4%. Agency debt lands near 5.5% all-in. Buy at a so-called 5% cap, assume flat rents (because reality), and you’ve engineered yourself a 2% cash-on-cash deal. Congratulations, you’ve beaten inflation emotionally.

If you’re in bridge debt at SOFR + 250? That’s not investing. That’s cardio.

So yes, distress exists. But distress alone doesn’t create returns. Math does.

Then comes the wish list:

Rates drop 100 bps.

Cap rates magically widen.

Rents grow like it’s 2021 again.

Could it happen? Sure.

Is it happening right now? No.

And one more thing, market data. The “average cap rate” everyone quotes is adorable. What actually trades and what gets reported are rarely the same number.

Now the balanced truth: (or my biased idea of it)

There are deals. Just not the loud ones.

The best risk-adjusted opportunities I’m seeing sit behind senior debt, bridge-to-agency transitions where the problem is capital structure, not hope and pro formas.

So yes, opportunities are coming.

No, this isn’t a free-for-all.

This is a patience market, not a momentum market.

Desperate capital is about to learn the difference.